Horizon Scanning

There’s a term of art, “horizon scanning,” that initially emerged from the world of futures studies, but which has since been adopted by tech-oriented businesspeople, politicians, and even folks working in legal fields who hope to stay ahead of the regulatory curve.

The general idea is that we should keep tabs on what’s barely visible along the horizon, because in doing so we can glean hints about what comes next.

In practice, this might mean watching the ebbs and flows of public sentiment and political speech trends to determine where best to focus our fundraising or legal efforts, or it might mean keeping an eye on what consumers in other countries or demographics are prioritizing—a shift toward conservative purchasing habits might portend a near-future spending pullback in certain products or services, for instance.

I like applying this concept to personal-scale matters, because while I think fully experiencing and appreciating the moment is important, I also think it’s a good idea to maintain a situational awareness for things just beyond our current acquaintance.

The better our understanding of happenings in far off lands and in unfamiliar fields of inquiry, the less likely we are to be caught completely flat-footed when something changes and disrupts our plans or upends our expectations.

The better our sense of what the future might hold (that sense honed by years of horizon-gazing), the more likely we are to be prepared (or bare-minimum, not completely unprepared) for novel innovations, social movements, or other sorts of norm disruption.

All of which is particularly valuable at a moment in which so many aspects of life and the world are seemingly mid-tumult.

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